# The AI selloff isn't in jobs or credit, and hedge funds have stopped betting against the Nasdaq
Latent Equity · published Oct 28, 2026 · Market rotation
Post: https://x.com/Latent_Equity/status/2115530012992634954

Our read: the AI selloff isn't showing up in jobs or credit, and hedge funds have already stopped betting against the Nasdaq.
Leveraged funds' net Nasdaq-100 futures position went from its most negative since 2015 in August to about flat now (our calc, CFTC data).

What it means for a regular investor: a sharp drop can come from positioning and nerves without the economy weakening. So far, the job and credit data don't show cracks.

- Hedge funds and other leveraged funds: net short 89,125 Nasdaq-100 mini futures on Aug 11, net long 950 on Oct 20. That's about flat, at +0.3% of open contracts.
- Jobs: the 4-week average of new jobless claims is 197,750, the lowest since October 2022.
- Credit: the Chicago Fed's credit-conditions gauge is at -0.03, slightly looser than average (above 0 means tighter than average).

What would prove us wrong:
- the Chicago Fed credit gauge rises above 0, or the 4-week jobless claims average climbs more than 15% above its low.

General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.