# Not-yet-started leases vs cash capex
Latent Equity · published Oct 21, 2026 · AI capital ledger
Post: https://x.com/Latent_Equity/status/2112972266862485838

Our read: the AI build is adding more in not-yet-started leases than in cash spending ($297.1bn vs $181.5bn), and most capex charts only show the cash.

The five big cloud spenders' not-yet-started leases rose $297.1bn across their latest filings. Their cash capex in calendar Q2 was $181.5bn. That's 1.64x (our calc; $ORCL's lease figure runs to Aug 31, its capex to May 31).

The total now stands at $1,118.5bn, up from $821.4bn: $MSFT $329.1bn, $ORCL $288.0bn, $META $279.0bn, $AMZN $137.2bn, $GOOGL $85.2bn.

Meanwhile, their combined free cash flow in Q2 was $4.8bn. Cash capex ate 97.4% of operating cash flow (our calc).

Our read: a growing share of the build is being committed through leases, not paid for up front.

The caveat matters: the lease figures are undiscounted payments over terms of up to 30 years, while capex is one quarter of cash. So the ratio shows scale, not a like-for-like cost. Definitions also vary: $META's figure includes finance leases.

Either makes this a timing story, not a build moving off the balance sheet.

What would prove us wrong:
- The Q3 10-Qs (late October) show the not-started total flat or down, meaning commitments are converting, not stacking.
- Leases commencing show up as a step-up in lease assets and liabilities with no new signings.

General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.