# $META's Q3: the story is cash flow, not the capex guide
Latent Equity · published Oct 22, 2026 · AI capital ledger
Post: https://x.com/Latent_Equity/status/2113286298421117425

Our read: the story in $META's Q3 is cash flow, not the capex guide.

Operating cash flow was $32.79B. Cash spent on property and equipment was $33.94B. That leaves free cash flow of about -$1.16B on our basis (our calc), the first negative quarter in our series, which starts in Q3 2023. A year ago it was +$11.17B.

The guide barely moved. $META now sees 2026 capex, including finance-lease principal, at $135–145B, narrowed from $130–145B. The top end is unchanged; only the bottom went up by $5B.

Q3 capex was $34.91B on the guide's basis: $33.94B cash plus $0.96B of finance-lease principal. In our cash-only series that's +13% from Q2's $30.12B and +80% from $18.83B a year ago (our calc).

What fills the gap (our read): long-term debt was $80.92B at Sep 30, up from $58.74B at Dec 31, 2025, after $24.91B of net proceeds from new long-term debt this year. The release also announces a new non-voting Class C stock, and names capital raising among its purposes. Holders get a one-time dividend of one non-voting Class C share for each Class A and Class B share, to be paid after the new share class takes effect on Jan 19, 2027.

The guide implies $49.2–59.2B of Q4 capex, 1.41–1.70x Q3 (our calc). On 2027, $META says only that it expects "to continue investing aggressively."

Which line do you watch in Q4: the capex, or the cash flow covering it?

What would prove us wrong:
- Q4 operating cash flow covers Q4 cash capex (our-basis free cash flow back above zero) with Q4 capex including finance-lease principal at or above $49.2B.
- Long-term debt is flat or lower at Dec 31 vs $80.92B at Sep 30, with full-year capex inside the $135–145B guide.

General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.