# $NVDA's sales per gigawatt keep rising, so AI budgets buy less capacity
Latent Equity · published Oct 27, 2026 · Semiconductors
Post: https://x.com/Latent_Equity/status/2115097849704874226

Our read: on its next chip platform, Nvidia expects about $40B of its own sales per gigawatt of AI data center, which means the all-in cost of a Rubin-era gigawatt will sit well above our $40.6B central estimate, which is based on today's spending.

What it means for a regular investor: the same big-tech budgets buy less AI capacity than the headlines suggest. Each gigawatt (roughly a large power plant's worth of electricity) costs more as chips get pricier.

The numbers:
- Nvidia on its August earnings call: its revenue opportunity went from about $18B per gigawatt (Hopper) to $25B (Blackwell) to $40B (Vera Rubin, its next chip platform). That's Nvidia's own share, not the whole building.
- Jensen Huang at GTC Taipei 2026, all-in: a gigawatt AI factory costs "$50, $60 billion, and soon … $80, $100 billion per gigawatt."

So what does ~$820B of 2026 spending by the five biggest spenders buy? (our calc, scenarios not guidance)
- At $50–60B per gigawatt (today, per Huang): about 14–16 GW
- At $80–100B (Rubin era, per Huang's "soon"): about 8–10 GW; even with 50% more spend in 2027, about 12–15 GW

What would prove us wrong:
- all-in costs per gigawatt stay near today's levels as Rubin ships, or a lot of capacity gets funded through leases that don't show up in these budgets.

General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.