# $SOXX 6%+ drops: what history says
Latent Equity · published Oct 23, 2026 · Macro history
Post: https://x.com/Latent_Equity/status/2113647836982018408

$SOXX fell 6.8% on Thursday. Since 2001, only about 0.4% of trading days were that bad (our calc).

What history says. 24 past drops of 6%+, spaced at least a month apart. Total returns, our calc:
1 week later: avg +0.0%, up 46% of the time (all days: +0.4%, 55%)
1 month: avg +3.9%, up 71% (all days: +1.5%, 59%)
3 months: avg +6.5%, up 71% (all days: +4.6%, 66%)

The path was rough: the avg worst drawdown inside those 3 months was -14.1%, vs -8.9% for any 3-month window (our calc).

Caveats: small sample (24), heavy in the 2001–02 and 2008–09 bear markets. The gap vs a normal day isn't statistically significant at any horizon (our calc). Past patterns don't predict.

General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.