# $SOXX's 8% drop and value's lead over growth: what history says
Latent Equity · published Nov 2, 2026 · Macro history
Post: https://x.com/Latent_Equity/status/2117275388883919129

$SOXX fell 8.2% on Friday, its 12th-worst day since 2001 and its second 6%+ drop in six sessions. Only about 0.2% of trading days have been that bad (our calc).

Same day, value's lead over growth hit a 1-year high as our 15-stock chip basket had its 2nd-worst day in a year (-8.2%). Value = cheaper, steadier companies ($IWD); growth = faster-growing, pricier ones ($IWF). Over 20 trading days, $IWD is up 3.7% and $IWF is down 7.4%.

What history says. After the 13 past drops of 8% or more:
1 week later: avg -0.8%, up 31% of the time (all days: +0.4%, 55%)
1 month: avg +10.9%, up 85% (all days: +1.5%, 59%)
3 months: avg +21.3%, up 69% (all days: +4.6%, 66%)

The ride was rough: the avg worst drawdown inside those 3 months was -14.0%, vs -8.9% in a typical 3-month stretch.

Caveats: tiny sample, bunched into six selloffs (2020 alone is four of the 13), so windows overlap. Spaced a month apart, only 7 remain and the 3-month avg drops to +9.9%. Not statistically tested. Past patterns don't predict.

General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.