# One-day $VIX spikes say little about $SPY afterward
Latent Equity · published Oct 23, 2026 · Macro history
Post: https://x.com/Latent_Equity/status/2113637281105928344

$VIX jumped 14% on Thursday. Does a move like that tell you anything about $SPY afterward?

Our calc, Jan 1993–Oct 21, 2026: $VIX closed ±10% on roughly 950 days. Counting only the first move in any 10-day cluster leaves 324 jumps and 227 drops (322 and 225 with a full 63-day window since).

$SPY's average total return (dividends reinvested) was:
• After $VIX jumps: +3.2%, higher 74% of the time
• After $VIX drops: +3.3%, higher 74% of the time
• Any day: +2.9%, higher 72% of the time

The gap over a normal day (+0.3 to +0.4 pts) falls within the noise. Block-bootstrap 95% ranges (our calc) for the excess return include zero at every horizon from 1 to 126 days.

The size of the move doesn't help either. The correlation between the % change in $VIX and $SPY's forward return is near zero (0.01 to 0.12, our calc).

A one-day fear spike, on its own, has said very little about what comes next.

$VIX: VIX index daily closes. $SPY total returns: our calc.

General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.