The $AMZN supplier-warrant ledger

Our read: $AMZN is lining up equity in the hardware between the chip and the power plug. The warrants vest as it buys from these suppliers; it still pays the strike price to exercise.

Suppliers issue warrants that vest as Amazon spends with them. Our ledger counts at least 13 live purchase-tied warrants in SEC filings.

How much of each company Amazon could own per $1B it spends (our calc: shares still to vest ÷ shares out ÷ spend threshold):
- $AAOI, optics maker: ~1.96% per $1B (6.62M shares over $4B of purchases)
- $GNRC, backup generators: ~0.29% per $1B (1.39M unvested shares, up to $8B)
- $MMM, optical connectivity and other data-center products: ~0.09% per $1B (85% of the warrant over $6B)
- $QCOM, server chips: at most ~0.034% per $1B (21.25M unvested shares, up to $60B; some tranches vest on deals and binding orders, not just payments)

Our read: in these four, the smaller the supplier, the more equity each $1B buys, and optics and power keep coming up. Since Feb, new deals include $STM, $SNX, Cerebras ($CBRS), $GNRC, $QCOM and $MMM.

What would prove us wrong

Set before publication. We report back in public when one trips.

• the pattern breaks if new warrants move away from optics, power and server parts, or if vesting stalls in the filings (spend not showing up). Open · next check: Next $AMZN 10-Q

Method and sources

Figures marked "our calc" are our own arithmetic on the cited primary sources (company filings, earnings releases, public datasets). Every figure was checked against its source before publication.

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General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.