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The archive of our published research
Our research pieces in full, each with its chart, sources, and the thresholds that would prove it wrong. Browse by series or ticker.
Oct 21, 2026 · AI capital ledger$NVDA is locking up suppliers with commitments, not cash
Our read: $NVDA is locking up its suppliers with purchase commitments, not cash. Its supply and capacity commitments went from $50.3B to $279B in three quarters.
Oct 21, 2026 · AI capital ledgerNot-yet-started leases vs cash capex
Our read: the AI build is adding more in not-yet-started leases than in cash spending ($297.1bn vs $181.5bn), and most capex charts only show the cash.
Oct 21, 2026 · Agentic economyFrontier labs are buying into industries
Our read: the AI labs are buying their way into industries, but their revenue hasn't followed yet.
Oct 20, 2026 · Power meterPower meter: the grid is the limit
Our read: the limit on the AI build right now is the grid, not the chips.
Oct 20, 2026 · AI capital ledgerThe $AMZN supplier-warrant ledger
Our read: $AMZN is lining up equity in the hardware between the chip and the power plug. The warrants vest as it buys from these suppliers; it still pays the strike price…
Oct 20, 2026 · SemiconductorsChip output vs Korea chip exports
Our read: the chip boom looks more like a price boom than a volume boom.
Oct 19, 2026 · Macro history$BRK.B: defensive by cash, cyclical by business
Our read: $BRK.B trades like a safe haven, but most of what Berkshire owns still rises and falls with the economy. It's defensive by cash, cyclical by business.
Oct 19, 2026 · Macro historyOil spikes vs stocks: an event study
Our read: sharp oil spikes have been noise for stocks, not a signal.
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