$NVDA is locking up suppliers with commitments, not cash

Our read: $NVDA is locking up its suppliers with purchase commitments, not cash. Its supply and capacity commitments went from $50.3B to $279B in three quarters.

The commitments $NVDA reports in its filings (Oct 2025 to Jul 2026): $50.3B, then $95.2B, $119B and $279B. The last figure is about 1.0x trailing-four-quarter data-center revenue ($277.8B) and about 2.1x trailing operating cash flow ($134.4B) (our calc).

Over those three quarters, commitments rose +455% while trailing data-center revenue rose +66% (our calc). In FY24–FY25 it was the other way round: revenue outran commitments.

The cash went the other way. Prepaid supply and capacity agreements peaked at ~$5.5B (Apr 2024) and were ~$3.5B (Oct 2025), falling from 17% (Jul 2023) to 2% of trailing data-center revenue (our calc). Since then the line hasn't been broken out.

Per the Q2 FY27 10-Q, the $279B is "primarily memory and manufacturing facilities": $92B falls in the rest of FY27, $87B in FY28, $88B in FY29 and $12B after that.

Our read: this is our $AMZN warrant ledger from the other side. Amazon ties up suppliers with equity that vests as it buys; Nvidia does it with commitments. The newly named advances are small next to $279B: KYEC $1.1B (per NVIDIA), and $AMKR's agreements in Arizona and South Korea, which Amkor puts at "$3 billion" total (its two announced deals, $1.5B and $1.3B, add to $2.8B).

Caveats: the definition changed three times since FY24, so the series isn't like-for-like. Per the filings, some commitments can be cancelled or rescheduled before firm orders.

What would prove us wrong

Set before publication. We report back in public when one trips.

• the Q3 FY27 10-Q shows supply and capacity commitments back below ~$119B (the pre-jump level), meaning the lock-up is unwinding. Or, if NVIDIA breaks out prepaid supply agreements again, a balance above ~$10B (about 2x the FY25 peak), meaning the lock-up is moving into cash. Open · next check: Q3 FY27 10-Q

Method and sources

Figures marked "our calc" are our own arithmetic on the cited primary sources (company filings, earnings releases, public datasets). Every figure was checked against its source before publication.

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General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.