Power meter: the grid is the limit

Our read: the limit on the AI build right now is the grid, not the chips.

Texas has 194.3 GW of large loads (75 MW or more) "conditionally included" in its grid queue. Its all-time peak demand is about 91 GW (unofficial). That's 2.1x the peak (our calc).

The hook: $MSFT walked away from Nscale's Loughton site in Essex after UK Power Networks reportedly told Nscale it couldn't get enough grid power until the early-to-mid 2030s (first reported by The Morning Intelligence; the exit, by The Telegraph). Two days earlier, NiSource ($NI) said $MSFT "fully funds all generation and transmission required to serve its load", with about 1,100 MW added to NIPSCO's generation pool, over a 20-year term from 2028. That contract is pending: no filing with Indiana's utility regulator yet.

Three grids, one pattern:
- Texas (ERCOT): 194.3 GW conditionally included, with energization of new data centers and crypto mines of 75 MW or more paused until an eligibility audit is done (report to Texas regulators due Dec 10).
- PJM, the largest US grid operator: its 2028/29 capacity auction cleared at the $325/MW-day cap and still came up 6,831 MW short of its reliability target.
- Indiana: the buyer pays for its own power plants.

Our read: power is becoming a cost on the hyperscaler's own books, not something the utility passes through to everyone.

What would prove us wrong

Set before publication. We report back in public when one trips.

• ERCOT's eligibility audit (report due Dec 10) cuts the conditionally included load by more than half. Open · next check: ERCOT audit report (Dec 10)
• PJM's next auction clears below the cap with no shortfall. Open · next check: PJM 2029/30 auction (Dec 2026)
• Indiana's regulator, once the contract is filed, rejects or materially changes the customer-funded structure. Open · next check: NIPSCO contract filing at the IURC

Method and sources

Figures marked "our calc" are our own arithmetic on the cited primary sources (company filings, earnings releases, public datasets). Every figure was checked against its source before publication.

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General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.