$D's data-center power pipeline after Q3

Our read: Dominion's data-center demand is firming, not just queuing.

Contracted data-center capacity in Virginia: ~54.9 GW in September, vs ~48.5 GW in December and ~16.5 GW in July 2023.

The firmest tier rose to 12.2 GW from 10.2 GW (5.8 GW in July 2023). These are service agreements: the customer owes the revenue whether or not it takes the power.

Balls and strikes:
- About 60% of the total is early engineering-stage letters, not construction or service contracts.
- The construction-authorized tier fell to 9.8 GW from 11.0 GW. The slides don't say why.
- Contracted isn't built: $D left its 2026 guide and ~$65B five-year spending plan unchanged.
- Q3 operating EPS of $1.28 included $0.05 from better-than-normal weather and $0.05 of renewable natural gas tax income.
- A pending merger with $NEE (NextEra), expected to close in the second half of 2027 subject to approvals, means $D's share price isn't a clean read of this data.

What would prove us wrong

Set before publication. We report back in public when one trips.

• the firmest tier flat or below 12.2 GW, or total contracted capacity falling, in Dominion's next update; or a merger approval that conditions or caps the Virginia build. Open · next check: $D Q4 report (February 2027, est.)

Method and sources

Figures marked "our calc" are our own arithmetic on the cited primary sources (company filings, earnings releases, public datasets). Every figure was checked against its source before publication.

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General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.