Latent EquityAI prices vs commitments: spenders held, the basket still fell
The big AI spenders' commitments mostly held or grew after their Q3 reports, and prices kept falling anyway.
Our 13-name AI basket closed Nov. 4 17.2% below its Oct. 6 peak, down from 11.3% below on Oct. 29. Only 2 of the 13 are above their 50-day average ($MSFT and $AMZN), and 4 of 13 are above their 200-day, down from 9 (our calc).
The split since Oct. 29 runs along the chain. The spenders held up: $AMZN +9.1%, $MSFT +4.8%, $GOOGL +1.8%, $META +0.9%. The chip and hardware names fell: $ARM -16.2%, $MU -14.9%, $SMCI -14.0%, $AMD -13.7%, $ORCL -11.3%.
Commitments, Q3 updates:
$AMZN: about $220B of 2026 cash capex, in its earnings release.
$META: 2026 range narrowed to $135-145B, and it said in its release it will "continue investing aggressively" next year.
$GOOGL: $195-205B for 2026, and 2027 to "increase significantly", the company said on its call.
$MSFT: calendar-2026 capex trimmed to about $170B from about $175B because outside data-center capacity arrived late, the company said on its call.
Backlog, the revenue customers have signed for but that hasn't been booked yet: $MSFT $683B, down $1B from last quarter (flat) and up 72% from a year ago. $GOOGL $567.7B, up $48.2B. $AMZN $578B, up $82B.
One layer down, a supplier rather than a big spender: $CLS spent 66% of its operating cash flow on capex in the first 9 months of 2026, vs 26% a year earlier, and 2% on buybacks vs 29%. It sold $3.45B of new stock on Aug. 7, and its share count is up 9.7% from a year ago. Inventory went from $2.19B at the end of 2025 to $4.51B. Its 2027 revenue outlook is $40B, up 90%.
Our tests, straight:
- Two or more big spenders cut next year's capex: not tripped. None did.
- Any backlog falls from one quarter to the next: tripped on the letter by $MSFT's -$1B (-0.1%). That is flat in substance, but the test said any.
- Basket breadth still falling 4 weeks after guides held: the clock started Oct. 29. One week in, breadth has not improved. It can be judged around Nov. 25.
What would prove the read wrong: two or more of the big spenders cut next year's capex plans, or backlogs actually shrink rather than hold flat.
Next check: Basket breadth ~Nov 25 (4 weeks after Oct 29 guides)
Method and sources
Figures marked "our calc" are our own arithmetic on the cited primary sources (company filings, earnings releases, public datasets). Every figure was checked against its source before publication.
General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.