Rising real yields and tech: mostly a 2022 story

Our read: rising real yields hurting tech is mostly a 2022 story, not a rule. Leave out 2022, and in the quarters with the biggest real-yield jumps $QQQ beat $SPY by about 1 pt and won 72% of the time (our calc).

A real yield is what a bond pays after inflation. The 10-year version hit 2.95% on Oct 5, its highest since Nov 2008.

Across 94 quarters since 2003, in the fifth of quarters with the biggest rises (avg +60bp), $QQQ beat $SPY by just +0.03 pts (our calc). Three quarters of 2022 are most of the bad news.

Why real yields rise matters too. When they rose while inflation expectations held flat or fell, as in 2026Q2, $QQQ did best: +1.3 pts on average, +1.9 without 2022 (our calc). Since Jan 2025, real yields are up 53bp and $QQQ is ahead of $SPY by 6.4 pts.

Caveats: $QQQ holds very different companies than in 2003, a 2022-style shock can happen again, and each group has few quarters.

What would prove us wrong

Set before publication. We report back in public when one trips.

• Without 2022, the biggest-rise quarters trail the biggest-fall quarters by 2 pts or more, and each fifth does worse than the one before (today: 1.05 pts, no steady step-down). Open · next check: Each quarter-end re-run (next: Dec 31, 2026)
• $QQQ lags $SPY in the next +50bp quarter after 2026Q3 (it lagged by 1.8 pts on +73bp). Open · next check: Next +50bp real-yield quarter

Method and sources

Figures marked "our calc" are our own arithmetic on the cited primary sources (company filings, earnings releases, public datasets). Every figure was checked against its source before publication.

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General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.