Chip stocks' 2025-26 run was rare, but it wasn't a one-off

Our read: chip stocks' 2025–26 run was rare, but it wasn't a one-off.

$SMH stayed at or above its level of 50 trading days earlier for 215 days straight (May 2025 to March 2026), the third-longest run since 2000 (our calc).

What it means for a regular investor: long runs without a real pullback do happen, and they end. As of Oct 23, $SMH was 10.5% below where it was 50 trading days ago.

• Longest runs: 282 days (2016–17), 261 (2013–14), 215 (2025–26), 214 (2020–21), 203 (2003–04).
• After the 10 longest runs ended, $SMH was higher a year later in 7 of 9 cases, but the worst case was -30.6% (2004).

That's about 10 cases, and they overlap. It's history, not a forecast.
Before 2012 the history uses the fund's predecessor version.

What would prove us wrong

Set before publication. We report back in public when one trips.

• a fresh run past 215 days would show this one wasn't unusual. The ranking is also sensitive to the 50-day window we chose. Open · next check: Ongoing: any new $SMH run past 215 days

Method and sources

Figures marked "our calc" are our own arithmetic on the cited primary sources (company filings, earnings releases, public datasets). Every figure was checked against its source before publication.

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General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.