AI suppliers are backing their own customers, not just selling to them

Our read: AI chip and cloud suppliers are backing the customers who buy from them, not just selling to them.

$NVDA has guaranteed up to $105B of data-center leases for an OpenAI affiliate. That is 109% of its latest quarter's revenue ($96.2B). A guarantee means the supplier pays only if the tenant defaults and the asset is worth less than promised. $105B is a ceiling, shown here for scale. Nothing has been paid; it isn't in effect yet, and payments could start around 2028.

Also in filings:
- $AVGO: up to about $29B backstop on one customer's leased chip racks, 98% of its quarterly revenue ($29.6B).
- $AMZN: $50.0B invested in OpenAI preferred stock, all funded; for scale, about 63% of AWS's first-half sales ($79.8B).
- $NVDA: $25.0B of commitments to invest in other companies in its ecosystem.

Ratios are our calc from filed figures. The worry: some demand is backed by the seller.

What would prove us wrong

Set before publication. We report back in public when one trips.

• the next filings ($NVDA's November 10-Q, $AVGO's December 10-K) show these promises flat or lower, with no payments made. Open · next check: $NVDA's November 10-Q and $AVGO's December 10-K

Method and sources

Figures marked "our calc" are our own arithmetic on the cited primary sources (company filings, earnings releases, public datasets). Every figure was checked against its source before publication.

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General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.