Latent Equity$SOXX 6%+ drops: what history says
$SOXX fell 6.8% on Thursday. Since 2001, only about 0.4% of trading days were that bad (our calc).
What history says. 24 past drops of 6%+, spaced at least a month apart. Total returns, our calc:
1 week later: avg +0.0%, up 46% of the time (all days: +0.4%, 55%)
1 month: avg +3.9%, up 71% (all days: +1.5%, 59%)
3 months: avg +6.5%, up 71% (all days: +4.6%, 66%)
The path was rough: the avg worst drawdown inside those 3 months was -14.1%, vs -8.9% for any 3-month window (our calc).
Caveats: small sample (24), heavy in the 2001–02 and 2008–09 bear markets. The gap vs a normal day isn't statistically significant at any horizon (our calc). Past patterns don't predict.
Method and sources
Figures marked "our calc" are our own arithmetic on the cited primary sources (company filings, earnings releases, public datasets). Every figure was checked against its source before publication.
General research, the same for every reader. Not investment advice.